1 and investments in capital goods fell by 0

"The long period of fourteen years of growth has come to its end." the last report of the Organization of cooperation and development (OECD) on the Spain, presented yesterday, made almost obituary diagnosis. The Spain is, in fact, today, at the gates of the recession. For the first time since the second quarter of 1993, GDP fell by 0.2 between July and September. And all the economists predict that further cuts will follow over the next few quarters. The deterioration of the situation is due to the international crisis but also to a à des purement de la l' à la mais aussi des La de la l' due à la purely de la purement de la l' à la mais aussi des La de la l' due à la the l' à la mais aussi des La de la l' due à la à la à la but aussi aussi des La de la l' due à la des la de la de la l' due à la l' due à la à la

All indicators in the Red

All indicators are red. During three months, consumption has virtually stagnated ( 0.1) and investments in capital goods fell by 0.6, 6.4 in the construction. For all economists, the recession is expected to last. The OECD provides a decrease in the activity of 0.9 in 2009 and a timid exit of the tunnel in 2010, with growth of 0.8.

Bank economists are often more pessimistic: those of BBVA bet, for example, a decline of 1 to 1.5.

David Vegara, Secretary of State for the economy, who admitted yesterday, that the economic prospects were "not good", sees no recovery before the end of next year. However the 2009 budget was established on the basis of a 1 growth. What led the Governor of the Bank of Spain, worried for the rapid deterioration of public accounts, to ask the Government to review its copy and continue to constrain expenses. Programmed to 1.6, the public deficit could rise to 3 in 2009, admits today at the Ministry of the economy. According to BBVA, it could be 4.5.

The deterioration accelerated employment constitutes the most spectacular element in this crisis. He thus was registered in October more than 192,000 new applicants employment, a historical record, bringing the number of unemployed to 2.8 million. The construction sector dismissed in turn arm (about 480 a year) and especially automotive industry. The number of bankruptcies jumped 267 in nine months. OECD sees the unemployment rate from 10.9 this year to 14.2 in 2009 and 14.8 in 2010. BBVA place the bar to 15.4 next year and the Association of Spanish banks (AEB) between 16 and 17. The Spain could be 3.5 million unemployed in 2009. In September, more than 800,000 jobs had been lost in the country over a year.

Fourth stimulus plan

Before the gravity of the situation, the Government multiplies the one-off measures, sometimes giving the impression to improvise. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who must present next Thursday a new package, is in its fourth stimulus plan since his re-election to the Presidency of the Spanish Government last March. Between the surrender of 400 euros to all taxpayers and the abolition of the tax on wealth (20 billion euros over two years), support measures to Spanish finance in the form of buybacks of assets (from 30 to 50 billion), aid employment and the unemployed (from 270 to 570 million euros) and increased from 9 to 29 billion euros in credit lines to SMEsthe invoice has been constantly is increasing.

Representative, last year, 2.23 of the GDP, the public accounts surplus appeared in 2004 is already more a distant memory and public debt, which represented 36 of GDP, will increase to 42.

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero seems not too hurried to initiate structural reforms that would counsel to economists. Some risk, it is true, to stir up a social climate which tends.