Boeing has announced its cadences slow turn

While air transport continues to sink into the crisis, Airbus already foresees the end of the tunnel. According to its leaders, not only the year 2009 would not catastrophic for the European aircraft manufacturer, plans to deliver as many aircraft as in 2008 (483), but 2010 should be the year of the recovery for air transport, with a net rebound expected in 2011. It is presented scenarios the week last to analysts by the commercial Director of Airbus, John Leahy. According to him, global air traffic should not decline by more than 2 this year and should find year next between 0 and 4.5 growth, then bounce up to 6 in 2011.

Yet very remote assumptions of the latest forecasts of Iata, which relies on a decrease in traffic of 5.7 this year and didn't resume until 2011. But unlike the Iata, Airbus integrates in its calculations the low-cost companies, as well as Chinese companies, including traffic is growing. Above all, the commercial Director of Airbus on the principle that the current crisis is not different from others, which were all completed by a strong rebound in traffic.

The superposition of previous crises traffic curves seem to give reason (see chart). The crisis of the early years 1990-1993 and that of the post 9 / 11 is were translated by a decline in traffic of 3 to 4 the first year. But one as the other had followed by dramatic rebounds, 8 for the first and 14 for the second. This tendency to catch-up confirmed over a longer period. Despite the successive crises, global traffic doubles every fifteen years. And according to Airbus, the next 15 years should not be an exception.

That is why neither Airbus nor Boeing would, until now, drastically reducing their production rates.

Last January, the European aircraft manufacturer had only announced that it will be limited in 2010 to 34 A320 family (A320) and 8.5 another (A330) per month, and 18 A380, either in total some 483 aircraft, level equivalent to that of 2008 and 2009. And, despite the uncertainties weighing on the financing of aircraft ordered, which could compel the unfortunate companies to cancel their orders, regardless of traffic. So far, they have however remained relatively little many, even though they are superior to new orders at Boeing (32 cancellations for 28 orders in the first quarter) and almost equivalent at Airbus (21 cancellations for 22 orders). Back to the Airbus order book, the cancellation rate remains for the hour of 3, 6 in 2001. Step of what impact the production of Airbus, knowing that the manufacturer has won more command aircraft that it cannot produce. For the A320 family, "Overbooking" rate would reach even 15. Boeing has announced its cadences slow turn.

Lessons from the past

Finally, Airbus has drawn some lessons from the past. Crises of the 1990s and 2000, while Boeing had opted for a drastic reduction in its production, of the order of 50 in 2001, for fear of ending up with aircraft on the arm, Airbus was merely to maintain its production. Result, Boeing deliveries had very logically dropped by 50, while those of its competitor had declined by 7. Two years later, Airbus was before Boeing deliveries.